Polls mean more than computers this time of year

The first release of the BCS standings always brings excitement and/or consternation in various parts of the country, but the reality is it doesn't mean a whole lot. Only once (2005) in the first 11 years of the BCS has the top two teams in the initial release finished in the top two.

Tim Tebow and the Gators escape a close call with the Razorbacks. (US Presswire)

So, while Florida, Alabama and Texas control their own destiny for the championship game, most of the teams in the top 15 have some reasonable scenario that puts them into the title game.

I always feel it's better to pay attention to the polls than the computers at this time of year. The computers don't have enough data yet to be entirely helpful, and there isn't always much consensus among them. Texas, for example, is all over the place in the computers. The Longhorns rank all the way from third (Billingsley) to 15th (Sagarin). Only three teams are in the top five of all six computers: Florida, Alabama and Iowa.

Also, the polls are two-thirds of the formula, so they will ultimately drive the final results, and they are a lot more predictable in terms of what will happen.

Iowa is sixth in the BCS, but starting to make its move up the polls, boosted by this week's 20-10 win at Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes jumped up four spots in each poll, and the rise figures to continue if they keep winning. At 12-0, Iowa would need help to reach the title game, but less help than anyone else.

USC is the fourth-ranked team in the polls, but the computers have the Trojans 11th. They're being hurt by having played San Jose State and Washington State, both 1-5. Everyone left on their schedule is at least .500, so they will eventually catch up.

This sort of disparity between the polls and the computers is typical this time of year. We still have seven undefeated teams, all of which rank ahead of USC. So, the Trojans are the fourth-rated, one-loss team, behind LSU, Georgia Tech and Oregon, which they will eventually play.

Boise State is No. 4, the highest debut ranking in history for a non-major team. But it looks like there's nowhere to go but down. Already the support for the Broncos is starting to erode. They lost 17 points in the coaches poll this week, despite moving up one spot. In the Harris poll, they were jumped by USC, so now they trail the Trojans in both polls.

Long-term, they have no chance of holding off undefeated Cincinnati and Iowa. The team that is most important to the Broncos is TCU. That is the club they are competing with for the automatic BCS berth that goes to the highest rated, non-major conference champion.

The BCS standings could once again be called upon to act as a tiebreaker in a division. The top three ACC Coastal division teams -- Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia Tech -- will be favored the rest of the way.

If all three win out, they will each finish with one loss, with that loss coming to one of the other tied teams. In that case, the ACC tiebreaker calls for the top team in the BCS to win the division, unless the second-rated team is within five spots in the rankings and beat the top-rated team. That favors Miami at the moment. A similar tiebreaker would have put Texas into the Big 12 title game over Oklahoma last year.

So, we still have a long way to go before this all gets sorted out, but if you're a fan of Florida or Alabama, you can feel pretty secure in the knowledge that one of your teams will not play in Pasadena.